Icky news.And right before Thanksgiving.
The Federal Reserve doesn't see unemployment dropping anytime before the end of next year, well they say it will drop a little, like in the 9% range instead of the 10 percent range. A bunch of economists looked through their crystal ball and say that unemployment will bottom out in March. Hope they get some help from Merlin.
My adopted state of California now has an unemployment rate of 12.5%.
In none of the official estimates do they talk about the people who have stopped looking for work or who are underemployed. That number's more like 17.5%.
Then there was the news today that one out of every four homeowners, that's a quarter of the pie, owe more than their houses are worth. And last week we found out that mortgage defaults are hitting highs.
Are we in for a double dip?
And what does that mean if you're a young, black male? You're already living through the Depression, albeit with a flatscreen, but even ESPN can't cure the blues.
President Barack Obama told reporters yesterday that job losses were his top priority. He's counting on increasing exports to Asia to create jobs here. I love Obama, but he's kinda takin' a back seat here, not to mention relying on other countries' consumers to get us out of our mess. He better do something or he's going to have egg on his face/pie in his eye.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Another One Bites The Dust
Yesterday, I was the first to learn that another friend of mine will be laid off after Thanksgiving. Like me, she wasn't that surprised or disappointed. She had been earning a paycheck, but wasn't challenged. She has the tools and connections to land back on her feet in no time. Time will tell if I do, but so far, so good.
I've lost track as to how many that is this year, but we're working on dozens if you count the colleagues at NPR West whose programs were canceled, the friends that can't find work, not even a menial job at a convenient store - and those whose companies just couldn't stay afloat.
Many of them have found some work, some are even following their dreams. A news friend is singing opera and pursuing a theater career. If you're going to be poor might as well be happy. Another friend has become her own boss.
But yet another is staring at the computer screen doing nothing. Another has to move out of her warehouse space and figure out if she wants to leave town or not.
I'm not sure who to believe: the usual trustworthy Warren Buffet who says that yes we will create jobs because that's what we do or the prescient professor, Nouriel Rubini (he predicted the banking fiasco, but so did I) who says that we've got another year or so of job losses.
Rubini and others are calling for more investment and job creation by the federal government, the 21st century version of digging ditches, 'shovel-ready' projects like fixing bridges and roads and building stuff. Thing is that I don't really see myself digging ditches, although I want to learn to weld. I can't see my friend who will get the axe after Thankgsiving digging or welding.
I've lost track as to how many that is this year, but we're working on dozens if you count the colleagues at NPR West whose programs were canceled, the friends that can't find work, not even a menial job at a convenient store - and those whose companies just couldn't stay afloat.
Many of them have found some work, some are even following their dreams. A news friend is singing opera and pursuing a theater career. If you're going to be poor might as well be happy. Another friend has become her own boss.
But yet another is staring at the computer screen doing nothing. Another has to move out of her warehouse space and figure out if she wants to leave town or not.
I'm not sure who to believe: the usual trustworthy Warren Buffet who says that yes we will create jobs because that's what we do or the prescient professor, Nouriel Rubini (he predicted the banking fiasco, but so did I) who says that we've got another year or so of job losses.
Rubini and others are calling for more investment and job creation by the federal government, the 21st century version of digging ditches, 'shovel-ready' projects like fixing bridges and roads and building stuff. Thing is that I don't really see myself digging ditches, although I want to learn to weld. I can't see my friend who will get the axe after Thankgsiving digging or welding.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Obama To Rescue Jobs
Time to bring together big minds to solve the lack of jobs. In December, Obama's having a job summit to talk about job creation.
Running to the dentist, so that's all you get. Read the article. You have time, you are unemployed.
Running to the dentist, so that's all you get. Read the article. You have time, you are unemployed.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Unemployed Criminals
It's hard to find a job. Even more so if you have a criminal record. So what to do - try to get your record 'expunged' - try to wipe the slate clean. The Wall Street Journal reports that states are cleaning records at a rate of 33-50 percent higher than the year before.
Don't worry, we're talking ex-cons, petty theft (or not so petty), minor drug infractions, bar fights, that kind of thing, not violent criminals. And many of the crimes happened when the person was young, carefree and careless, like the guy who was rolling a joint as a teen and bumped into an undercover cop or the guy who threatened two other bar patrons...WITH A HAIRBRUSH.
Don't worry, we're talking ex-cons, petty theft (or not so petty), minor drug infractions, bar fights, that kind of thing, not violent criminals. And many of the crimes happened when the person was young, carefree and careless, like the guy who was rolling a joint as a teen and bumped into an undercover cop or the guy who threatened two other bar patrons...WITH A HAIRBRUSH.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
PS to Unemployment News
As I continue to play catch up, I found this tidbit from Calculated Risk that digs deeper into last week's unemployment numbers. The news doesn't get better.
In the 1960's women entered the workforce, in the 1970's there was lots of fluctuation in the Employment-Population ratio (percentage of the population in the workforce.) The 1980's saw a growth in this ratio of 6 percentage points from 57% to 63%. And during the last 20 years or so, it has revolved around 62%. Now we're back to the 58.5% we saw in the 1980's.
The trend has been for people to return to the workforce anywhere from six months to a year after the recession has been declared over. So once three to four percent of the population decide to return to the workforce, there will be that many more people looking for a job. It's not necessarily a correlation that the unemployment rate will rise by that much, but it probably will rise.
Roughly calculated, the percentage of part-time workers as a percentage of the number employed is one percent higher in the 1980's - more evidence that the unemployment rate is undercounting what's really going on in the labor market.
And retail sales and hiring are basically flat since last year, so don't expect an end of the year/Christmas bonus that will make things better.
Happy Tuesday morning (8min left on the west coast 'til afternoon.)
In the 1960's women entered the workforce, in the 1970's there was lots of fluctuation in the Employment-Population ratio (percentage of the population in the workforce.) The 1980's saw a growth in this ratio of 6 percentage points from 57% to 63%. And during the last 20 years or so, it has revolved around 62%. Now we're back to the 58.5% we saw in the 1980's.
The trend has been for people to return to the workforce anywhere from six months to a year after the recession has been declared over. So once three to four percent of the population decide to return to the workforce, there will be that many more people looking for a job. It's not necessarily a correlation that the unemployment rate will rise by that much, but it probably will rise.
Roughly calculated, the percentage of part-time workers as a percentage of the number employed is one percent higher in the 1980's - more evidence that the unemployment rate is undercounting what's really going on in the labor market.
And retail sales and hiring are basically flat since last year, so don't expect an end of the year/Christmas bonus that will make things better.
Happy Tuesday morning (8min left on the west coast 'til afternoon.)
Monday, November 9, 2009
Time and Still Procrastinating
When you are unemployed, you have all the time in the world. Time to do the NYT crossword (check), time for a megasuduko puzzle (check), time for cooking dinner for all your friends so that you can win a $250 gift certificate to your wine club. But of course there wasn't enough time since Halloween until today - count it - 9 days to actually enter the contest. There's actually tons of time until there is no time left. The deadline is November 9th. The blog never said what time. I still have 1 hour and 40 minutes to post my entry. So what can I do to procrastinate another hour, just to squeeze in in the nick of time? I'm too tired to think of anything. It's been an exhausting four days (Kali is home, resting comfortably, but still not eating.)
Here's the recipe for the Twisted Oak Culinary Cluck. I'm using a simple but delicious dish that I learned to make in Spain.
Rice In The Oven - Arroz al Horno (sounds better in Spanish.)
1 1/2 cups dry rice
3 cups chicken stock/water
1 head of garlic - remove all the white papery stuff from all of the cloves, leave the skin closest to the garlic
2 carrots - peel and cut in 1 inch chunks
1/2 red pepper cut into 1 inch square pieces
1/2 can of garbanzo beans
1 medium onion - cut into 1-1/2 inch chunks (I usually 1/2 then cut in sixth or eighth)
1-2 roma tomatoes sliced
1 medium potato, cut into 1-1/2 inch cubes
6 chicken legs
8oz morcilla de cebolla* - cut into 1-1/2 inch rounds
Fino or dry sherry (the cheap kind is fine)
Salt to taste
In a 3 quart pyrex dish or clay cookware pour the stock. Add the rice so it is distributed evenly.
Add the garbanzo beans.
Add salt to taste.
Arrange all of the chunks of vegetables so they are distributed in the stock.
Add morcilla (make sure it is under the broth so that the flavor soaks through)
Arrange the chicken legs for a nice presentation.
Bake at 375 degrees for an hour, lightly pour (or heavily) the sherry all over the dish (kind of as you would balsamic vinegar, but you don't have to worry about putting too much.) Bake for another 20 minutes to 30 minutes until chicken is fully cooked.
To serve, make sure everyone gets at least one piece of all the different goodies.
To properly eat, squeeze the garlic out of the skin and mash up the garlic and morcilla into the rice.
Serve with slices of baguettes, a diced tomato/cucumber salad and a bottle of 2004 Twisted Oak The Spaniard.
Serves 6.
*I use morcilla de cebolla from The Spanish Table in Berkeley but they have other locations and mail order.
Here's the recipe for the Twisted Oak Culinary Cluck. I'm using a simple but delicious dish that I learned to make in Spain.
Rice In The Oven - Arroz al Horno (sounds better in Spanish.)
1 1/2 cups dry rice3 cups chicken stock/water
1 head of garlic - remove all the white papery stuff from all of the cloves, leave the skin closest to the garlic
2 carrots - peel and cut in 1 inch chunks
1/2 red pepper cut into 1 inch square pieces
1/2 can of garbanzo beans
1 medium onion - cut into 1-1/2 inch chunks (I usually 1/2 then cut in sixth or eighth)
1-2 roma tomatoes sliced
1 medium potato, cut into 1-1/2 inch cubes
6 chicken legs
8oz morcilla de cebolla* - cut into 1-1/2 inch rounds
Fino or dry sherry (the cheap kind is fine)
Salt to taste
In a 3 quart pyrex dish or clay cookware pour the stock. Add the rice so it is distributed evenly.
Add the garbanzo beans.
Add salt to taste.
Arrange all of the chunks of vegetables so they are distributed in the stock.
Add morcilla (make sure it is under the broth so that the flavor soaks through)
Arrange the chicken legs for a nice presentation.
Bake at 375 degrees for an hour, lightly pour (or heavily) the sherry all over the dish (kind of as you would balsamic vinegar, but you don't have to worry about putting too much.) Bake for another 20 minutes to 30 minutes until chicken is fully cooked.To serve, make sure everyone gets at least one piece of all the different goodies.
To properly eat, squeeze the garlic out of the skin and mash up the garlic and morcilla into the rice.
Serve with slices of baguettes, a diced tomato/cucumber salad and a bottle of 2004 Twisted Oak The Spaniard.
Serves 6.
*I use morcilla de cebolla from The Spanish Table in Berkeley but they have other locations and mail order.
One Good Thing About Unemployment
You have a lot of time.
Time especially comes in handy when your beloved 15 year old dog gets ill and you have to go back and forth to vets for four days. This is why on a blog about unemployment, I didn't cover Friday's 10.2 percent unemployment rate - highest in decades and the cry about worst joblessness since the depression. Somethings are more important, like laying out $2K for your beloved companion. Fortunately, she is doing better and will recover, unlike the job market. Like I said, somethings are more important.
Back to business with a quick recap of some of the implications about the unemployment numbers.
From Brookings:
In "New Unemployment and Productivity Numbers are Bad News for Job Seekers" Brookings analysts conclude that even though the economy is doing better, companies aren't hiring, but making their workers work harder. Yeah for those who are employed. You still have your paycheck, but are working for the man harder and harder and harder so you can be more stressed and have less time for your loved ones and furry friends.
The New York Times lists a bunch of quotes from economists that can be summed up as advice to the Obama administration to do more. To be fair on Friday, Obama signed legislation that will extend unemployment benefits and the tax credit.
John Nichols of The Nation points out that the real unemployment rate is 17.5%. WHAT! Yep, you have to include all of those people who have gotten discouraged and stop looking for work. Unemployment figures only count people who look for work, but can't find it. Economists have a term for people who have given up - discouraged workers. And if you include those people, unemployment rises big time. Nichols joins the call that Obama and the Dems must become the party of jobs and start investing in America to create jobs. Sounds very Keynsian, even though he has fallen out of fashion since the Reagan era.
I'm going to look on the bright side of things for now - yeah for time.
Back to business with a quick recap of some of the implications about the unemployment numbers.
From Brookings:
In "New Unemployment and Productivity Numbers are Bad News for Job Seekers" Brookings analysts conclude that even though the economy is doing better, companies aren't hiring, but making their workers work harder. Yeah for those who are employed. You still have your paycheck, but are working for the man harder and harder and harder so you can be more stressed and have less time for your loved ones and furry friends.
The New York Times lists a bunch of quotes from economists that can be summed up as advice to the Obama administration to do more. To be fair on Friday, Obama signed legislation that will extend unemployment benefits and the tax credit.
John Nichols of The Nation points out that the real unemployment rate is 17.5%. WHAT! Yep, you have to include all of those people who have gotten discouraged and stop looking for work. Unemployment figures only count people who look for work, but can't find it. Economists have a term for people who have given up - discouraged workers. And if you include those people, unemployment rises big time. Nichols joins the call that Obama and the Dems must become the party of jobs and start investing in America to create jobs. Sounds very Keynsian, even though he has fallen out of fashion since the Reagan era.
I'm going to look on the bright side of things for now - yeah for time.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
More Federal Help on the Way - Phew
Today, the federal government took the first step in extending unemployment benefits with the Senate voting to extend benefits for 14 weeks and up to 20 in the worst hit states. California?
Good thing I applied yesterday. I'll have almost a whole year of eligibility on unemployment. Time to party, party, party. Or at least sleep late, my expenses are more than my benefits. To make up the difference, I'll try to work some. This morning, I pitched Marketplace a radio feature on the lengths a friend of mine goes to earn a little cash - legally. Her next 'venture' - moving a bed from SF to Las Vegas. Hopefully, they will take it!
Good thing I applied yesterday. I'll have almost a whole year of eligibility on unemployment. Time to party, party, party. Or at least sleep late, my expenses are more than my benefits. To make up the difference, I'll try to work some. This morning, I pitched Marketplace a radio feature on the lengths a friend of mine goes to earn a little cash - legally. Her next 'venture' - moving a bed from SF to Las Vegas. Hopefully, they will take it!
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Unemployment is Stressful
The Associated Press has a cool interactive map that tells whether or not a county is under more stress as measured by unemployement, foreclosures and bankruptcies. Alameda Country where I live, the stress level rose (bad) by more than 5 points this year to 14.73, but went down (good) by almost a half a point last month (due to a reduction in the unemployment rate - wait 'til I file.) In comparison, the stress level was 6.75 in October of 2007 before the recession started.
Celebrated Halloween in Style
Yesterday, was my official last day of work.
I celebrated by going all out on Halloween weekend dressed as a homeless polar bear (waiting for photo): stopping traffic on Market Street in a critical mass bike ride; a bike joust at the Vulcan Lofts complete with O.F.D. competing for head jouster; dinner, champagne and fabulous dance party where I apparently had a REALLY good time; an afternoon beer, a surprise call from a friend inviting me for sushi and a movie (and a sleepover) ;) and ending with tamales and a Dia de los Muertos parade in the Mission.
And this morning, I slept in 'til 11am.
Oh what fun it is to be unemployed.
Now it's almost Wednesday and I didn't do sh!t today. No resumes, no cleaning, no job search, no working on my zillions of projects floating through my head. I did walk the dog, clean out my email box (the ultimate procrastination tool) and make a healthy dinner.
And panic sets in. California lost almost 3/4 of a million jobs. Unemployment rate in the SF area hovers around 11%. Will I work again?
I celebrated by going all out on Halloween weekend dressed as a homeless polar bear (waiting for photo): stopping traffic on Market Street in a critical mass bike ride; a bike joust at the Vulcan Lofts complete with O.F.D. competing for head jouster; dinner, champagne and fabulous dance party where I apparently had a REALLY good time; an afternoon beer, a surprise call from a friend inviting me for sushi and a movie (and a sleepover) ;) and ending with tamales and a Dia de los Muertos parade in the Mission.
And this morning, I slept in 'til 11am.
Oh what fun it is to be unemployed.
Now it's almost Wednesday and I didn't do sh!t today. No resumes, no cleaning, no job search, no working on my zillions of projects floating through my head. I did walk the dog, clean out my email box (the ultimate procrastination tool) and make a healthy dinner.
And panic sets in. California lost almost 3/4 of a million jobs. Unemployment rate in the SF area hovers around 11%. Will I work again?
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